基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水反演II:方案改进及综合评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.011

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 79-87.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.011

基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水反演II:方案改进及综合评估

纪永明¹, 陈传雷¹, 蒋大凯², 任志杰³, 孟莹³, 才奎志¹, 张硕¹, 胡鹏宇¹

1. 辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166;
2. 辽宁省气象局, 辽宁沈阳 110001;
3. 中国气象局气象干部培训学院辽宁分院, 辽宁沈阳 110166

收稿日期:2017-06-04 修回日期:2018-02-06 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
通讯作者: 蒋大凯,男,正研级高级工程师,E-mail:jdkjyt@126.com。 E-mail:jdkjyt@126.com
作者简介:纪永明,男,1984年生,工程师,主要从事灾害性天气短临预报预警方面研究,E-mail:lnjiym2030@163.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局预报员专项“基于SWAN产品的北上台风定量降水预报技术”（CMAYBY2013-016）和“基于水平距离和海拔高度影响的雷达定量降水预报订正技术研究”（CMAYBY2019-028）、辽宁省气象局科研项目“基于雷达外推和中尺度数值模式的短临定量降水预报对比分析”（201707）和辽宁省气象局暴雨专家型预报员团队共同资助。

Quantitative precipitation inversion algorithm based on the multi-radar mosaic II:scheme improvement and evaluation

JI Yong-ming¹, CHEN Chuan-lei¹, JIANG Da-kai², REN Zhi-jie³, MENG Ying³, CAI Kui-zhi¹, ZHANG Shuo¹, HU Peng-yu¹

1. Liaoning Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center, Shenyang 110166, China;
2. Liaoning Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110001, China;
3. Liaoning Branch, China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Shenyang 110166, China

Received:2017-06-04 Revised:2018-02-06 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高雷达定量降水反演精度，结合多普勒天气雷达组网拼图资料与地面加密自动站降水观测资料，在利用最优化法建立辽宁本地化动态Z-I关系基础上，进一步优化雷达定量降水反演方案，分别开展了分雷达回波强度等级与分地理区域优化降水Z-I关系研究。结果表明：两种优化方案的定量降水反演评估指标均有所改善，整体而言，优化方案有效降低了雷达定量降水反演误差，降水反演能力得到进一步提高。2013年辽宁抚顺“8.16”典型强降水个例定量降水反演结果显示，两种优化方案反演降水的空间分布形势与地面降水实况场更加接近，尤其弥补了单一动态Z-I关系法对20.0 mm·h^-1以上量级强降水落区范围以及40.0 mm·h^-1以上量级超强降水中心反演不足的问题，采用优化方案后的各项评估指标均大幅提升，明显改善了雷达定量降水反演的不确定性，降水反演效果具有更强的稳定性和可靠性，为灾害性短时强降水天气事件短临预报预警提供了定量参考。

关键词: 雷达定量降水反演, 分级最优化法, 综合评估

Abstract:

In order to improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation retrievals,combining Doppler multi-radar mosaic data and the gauge-observed hourly rainfall intensity data,the radar quantitative precipitation retrieval scheme was optimized in Liaoning province based on the established Z-I relationship using the optimization method.The results show that the evaluation indexes of the two optimization schemes for quantitative precipitation retrieval are improved.Overall,the two optimization schemes reduce the errors of radar quantitative precipitation retrieval effectively.The capability of precipitation retrieval is further improved.The precipitation retrieval results for Fushun “8.16” typical strong precipitation indicate that the spatial distribution of the radar quantitative precipitation retrieval using the two optimization retrieval schemes showed high accuracy compared to the surface precipitation data.In particular,the problems that the precipitation zone above 20.0 mm·h^-1 is smaller than actually happening and the magnitude of the short-time strong precipitation above 40.0 mm·h^-1 is underestimated are largely corrected.After using the optimization scheme,all the evaluation indexes are significantly improved and the uncertainties and dispersions in the radar quantitative precipitation retrieval are smaller than before.Precipitation retrieval results have better stability and reliability,which provide a quantitative reference for short-term forecasting and early warning of heavy rainfall events.

Key words: Radar quantitative precipitation inversion, Classification optimization method, Comprehensive evaluation

中图分类号:

P457.6

纪永明, 陈传雷, 蒋大凯, 任志杰, 孟莹, 才奎志, 张硕, 胡鹏宇. 基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水反演II:方案改进及综合评估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35(1): 79-87.

JI Yong-ming, CHEN Chuan-lei, JIANG Da-kai, REN Zhi-jie, MENG Ying, CAI Kui-zhi, ZHANG Shuo, HU Peng-yu. Quantitative precipitation inversion algorithm based on the multi-radar mosaic II:scheme improvement and evaluation[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 79-87.

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基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水反演II:方案改进及综合评估

Quantitative precipitation inversion algorithm based on the multi-radar mosaic II:scheme improvement and evaluation

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